Prediction markets like Polymarket and Opinion.trade face restrictions worldwide due to gambling laws and sanctions. Since centralized and regulated platforms are US-only for now, this guide focuses on decentralized ones and their international access.
We’ll outline blocked countries as of February 2026 and look ahead to potential changes, so traders can quickly check their access status.
Which countries ban prediction markets
A number of countries ban prediction market platforms under national gambling laws or financial regulations.
Americas
The US remains largely restricted for crypto-native platforms even though Polymarket US started a partial re-entry by being CFTC-compliant.
Canada blocks access in Ontario, while other provinces operate in a gray area with potential enforcement.
There’s no specific blocks for Mexico, but general crypto scrutiny applies.
Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela are blocked from U.S. sanctions.
Europe
Sad news for European traders as the continent applies widespread bans via national gambling laws.
Geofencing is enforced for Belgium, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain and the UK.
Folks in Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine also face restrictions.
Asia Pacific
High-risk sanctions countries like Iran, Iraq, North Korea, Syria, Myanmar, and Yemen face total blocks due to OFAC and UN embargoes.
Gray area in China’s but its crypto ban means there could be official restriction in the future. Japan and South Korea allow regulated platforms but not decentralized ones.
Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand enforce close-only policies, meaning no new trades allowed.
Australia and New Zealand outright bans prediction markets under gambling laws.
Africa and Middle East
Sanctioned nations including Burundi, Central African Republic, Congo (Kinshasa), Ethiopia, Libya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Zimbabwe prohibit access.
Restrictions apply to Lebanon and Yemen due to arms embargoes and OFAC lists.
No bans in South Africa and Nigeria though there may be gambling compliance in the future.
Below is a recap of key countries and regions where prediction markets are currently restricted:
| Region | Blocked countries | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| North America | USA, Canada (Ontario) | Regulatory bans |
| Europe | Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, UK | Gambling laws |
| Asia Pacific | Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand | Regulatory bans, Gambling laws |
| Africa & Middle East | Ethiopia, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan | Sanctions |
| Other | Cuba, Venezuela, Russia | Sanctions |
What are the risks
Platforms’ restricted lists may change monthly. Traders should regularly check their geoblock status to comply with local laws and regulations.
Note that using VPN may entail legal risks, resulting in:
- IP ban with account freeze
- Asset seizure in sanctioned countries
- Fines
Future evolution
As prediction markets are likely to grow into a mature asset class, we may see friendlier regulations in the medium-term. Though anonymous trading would become a rare sight.
U.S. CFTC rulemaking could expand access by mid-2026, favoring licensed platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket’s compliant entity.
Crackdowns in Europe would remain fragmented for a while though harmonized EU gambling directives are not unlikely.
Asia’s emerging markets are more promising with the Philippines eyeing pilot programs, while Australia debates sports exemptions ahead of the 2026 World Cup.
Like the crypto industry, the global trend favors regulation over bans. By 2027, we may see more licensed event trading venues, with compliance (KYC, AML) being a requirement.