A Saudi vessel was attacked in the Red Sea as Tehran-backed Houthis claimed strikes on tankers, opening a potential new front. In the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards stopped three oil tankers, declaring the waterway under their control and warning uncoordinated ships would face consequences.
This follows US strikes on Iranian targets and retaliatory actions, including on Kuwait. The interim MOU remains in limbo: not formally dead but failing to deliver reopening or sanctions relief, while traffic in Hormuz neared standstill, and Trump threatened bombing Iranian infrastructure in response to attacks.
Trade analysis
Multiple attacks and explicit IRGC enforcement have reversed any reopening momentum, compounding risks from Red Sea disruptions and truce collapse.
Bullish (YES) signals:
- Successful mediation reviving elements of the MOU
- Limited, symbolic actions allowing selective traffic to resume
Bearish (NO) signals:
- Continued IRGC stops, Houthi attacks, or expanded US strikes
- Full reimposition of blockades or sanctions crushing volumes
The prospects for the July contract have turned sharply negative. With Red Sea threats and the truce unraveling, full traffic normalization appears highly unlikely this month. The trading edge strongly favors NO by selling rallies aggressively as risks mount. Traders shall monitor US responses and any mediation breakthroughs.