NATO’s European allies plus Canada will formally pledge €70 billion ($80 billion) in military aid to Ukraine for both 2026 and 2027 at the upcoming Ankara summit. The commitment, to be written into the final declaration, combines €30 billion annually from an EU loan with existing national pledges. Germany, now Ukraine’s largest backer, drove the push for a written commitment to encourage broader European support.
The move is largely symbolic, aimed at showing Mr Trump that Europe has stepped up to replace halted US support, while reassuring President Zelensky of continued backing as Ukraine appears to be gaining ground in the conflict. Though diplomats kept the declaration short to avoid friction with Trump, whose peace efforts have stalled.
Trade analysis
Markets may briefly price in YES optimism around any Trump signals, but multi-year aids like this may firm up NO odds on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by year’s end.
Bullish (YES) signals:
- Trump successfully brokers a breakthrough deal
- Major Ukrainian or Russian battlefield reversal forcing talks
Bearish (NO) signals:
- Continued Russian advances in Donbas and Ukrainian deep strikes
- Summit sidelining of Ukraine
The strategy is to buy NO on dips and monitor post-summit reactions plus frontline developments. Our base case remains NO due to entrenched aid flows and divergent geopolitical goals, making the conflict likely to extend well into 2026 and beyond.