Iran’s ambassador to China, Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, announced that vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz will face new “service fees” for security and environmental costs, while granting “special considerations” to China and other friendly nations. Speaking at the World Peace Forum in Beijing, he emphasized collaboration with Oman on new arrangements via a joint committee. This comes after the interim deal’s 60-day toll-free period.
The US has firmly rejected any fees or Iranian control, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio warning against setting precedents for other chokepoints. The move highlights ongoing tensions over long-term management of the strait, which carried one-fifth of global oil and LNG in peacetime.
Trade analysis
Iran’s fee announcement introduces fresh uncertainty and friction for full commercial normalization, even as traffic has been recovering. It risks complicating US-Iran permanent talks.
Bullish (YES) signals:
- Special treatment for major buyers like China sustains high-volume traffic
- Oman-US coordination limits actual fees or disruptions
- Quick resolution in permanent negotiations maintaining toll-free access
Bearish (NO) signals:
- Implementation of broad fees slowing non-friendly traffic
- Escalation from US pushback
- Renewed caution among shipowners
The prospects for the July contract have cooled slightly. Selective fees may allow continued growth in friendly-nation traffic but create uneven recovery and negotiation risks. The edge favors caution, and our base case leans toward NO on full normalization by month-end.