SpaceX roared past Amazon’s market valuation on Tuesday and briefly topped that of Microsoft, rapidly scaling the list of the world’s most valuable companies, fueled by frenzied action in the firm’s newly listed option contracts. Shares rose 4.8% to close at $201.80, delivering a market value of roughly $2.655 trillion.
Yet the rocket and AI giant is also showing classic signs of post-IPO volatility. With a relatively small float, high multiples and a $4.94 billion net loss last year despite $18.67 billion in revenue, the stock traded like a meme name backed by strong retail appetite.
Trade analysis
Prices may swing sharply on momentum hype and upcoming index inclusion news. The edge is in separating short-term excitement and passive fund inflows from sustainable valuation drivers like execution and profitability.
Bullish (higher buckets, $3T) signals:
- Huge options volume with over 1 million contracts
- Fast-track Nasdaq 100 inclusion plus FTSE Russell and MSCI driving ETF demand
- Greenshoe exercise boosting IPO proceeds to $85.7 billion
Bearish (lower buckets, <$1.5T) signals:
- Sharp reversals and meme-stock-like volatility with limited float
- Significant net losses post-xAI merger contrasting with profitable tech giants
- Broader tech sector weakness and concerns over high valuation
Markets have come under pressure from intraday selling after the early surge, reflecting profit-taking amid volatility. A strategy is to fade extreme hype-driven spikes on options and inclusion news, buying NO on overextended near-term targets while holding YES on realistic momentum. Our base case is that SpaceX maintains a $3T valuation through June 30, 2026.