Bitcoin’s price action turned sharply bearish, sliding below $60,000 last Friday, its lowest since October 2024, marking the worst weekly performance since the 2022 FTX collapse. The token recovered modestly to around $61,500, but analysts warn the rebound may be short-lived amid structural weaknesses.
Key pressures include $5.5 billion in outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs over 13 straight days, a break below the critical 200-week moving average, as well as shifting interest-rate expectations toward hikes.
MicroStrategy sold a small portion before buying 1,550 BTC for $101M, but this failed to fully restore confidence. Down over 50% from the 2025 peak above $126,000, this bear market exposes fragility despite being milder than prior 80% drawdowns.
Trade analysis
Markets overreact to technical breaches and outflows but resolve on macro resolution. The trading edge is fading relief bounces while positioning for potential capitulation.
Bullish (80k or higher) signals:
- Surprise Fed pivot or Iran ceasefire progress easing rate and risk-off pressures
- Reclaim of the 200-week MA with short covering
Bearish (55k or lower) signals:
- Persistent ETF outflows and higher-for-longer rate expectations
- Further breaks in technical support triggering forced selling from leveraged holders
Currently near $61,500, bearish momentum prices 60% probability of a sub-60k or 55-60k close. The strategy is to sell rallies into 60-65k bins, accumulate 50-55k or 55-60k on further weakness. Our base case is a close under 60k, likely testing lower unless macro relief emerges.