The US and Iran are still engaged in indirect diplomacy following the April 8 ceasefire, but Tehran is taking its time to reply to Washington’s latest 14-point proposal aimed at wrapping up the conflict for good. The Trump administration had pushed for a quick answer by Friday, yet Iranian officials say they’re still carefully reviewing the highly technical text and need buy-in from multiple power centres, waiting on Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei to give the green light.
The American offer calls for Iran to freeze uranium enrichment for at least 12 years, hand over its stock of enriched uranium and reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days. In return, Washington would lift some sanctions and release frozen assets. Iran, however, is pushing a three-phase approach that starts with guarantees to end fighting on all fronts plus UN-backed assurances against future attacks. Tehran also wants to maintain influence over the Hormuz waterway rather than simply returning to the old status quo.
These differences have kept both sides apart, with ongoing naval tensions and the US blockade adding pressure. While Trump has talked up “very good talks,” the gaps on nuclear issues and regional security make a genuine breakthrough feel distant.
Trade analysis
Odds for a permanent peace deal by the end of this month have likely drifted lower as the reality of deep divisions sinks in. Markets may have briefly spiked on earlier optimism, but we’re now seeing a more measured pullback.
Bullish (YES) signals:
- Swift Iranian response with meaningful concessions
- Surprise compromise on nuclear freeze or Hormuz timeline
Bearish (NO) signals:
- Further delays or outright rejection of core demands
- Escalating naval incidents under the blockade
The smart trading edge right now is to fade any fresh hype around “progress” and look to sell YES during optimistic spikes while buying NO on dips. Our base case stays firmly on NO as the tight three-week timeline and fundamental disagreements simply don’t look likely to resolve quickly.