Oil prices advanced in the last week of April as hopes for a swift resolution to the US-Iran conflict faded. This rebound pushed prices to near three-week highs and added over 10% in the past week, reversing some of the earlier correction driven by ceasefire optimism.
President Trump cancelled his envoys’ planned trip for peace talks, stating there was “no point sitting around talking about nothing” and that the US “has all the cards.” Iran quickly submitted a revised proposal, described as “much better,” yet talks remain stalled after eight weeks of war.
The fragile ceasefire has held fighting in check but failed to restore meaningful supply. The US demands safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz while Iran resists amid the ongoing naval blockade of its ports. Shipping through the vital chokepoint stays heavily constrained, with barely any tankers moving.
Technicals reflect renewed bullish momentum as WTI reclaimed ground above $90 after dipping toward $80 in mid-April. Resistance now sits at $98-$103 with support at $88 and deeper at $84. Volatility has eased from March extremes but remains headline-sensitive.
Trade analysis
Short-dated WTI contracts show active brackets from $90-$110 amid persistent geopolitical risk.
Bullish ($100 or higher) signals:
- Further breakdown in talks or escalation of the US naval blockade
- Renewed IRGC threats or actual disruption to remaining shipping
Bearish ($90 or lower) signals:
- Surprise diplomatic breakthrough or verified partial reopening of the Strait
- Additional global strategic stock releases
The current strategy is to fade rallies into $110 on unconfirmed optimism, and buy dips aggressively toward $90 on any escalation headlines or confirmation of prolonged blockade. Our base case for end-April into May is volatile trading in the $100-$110 range with upside bias as long as Hormuz constraints persist and talks remain unproductive. A move beyond $110 becomes increasingly plausible without a meaningful diplomatic breakthrough.