Ethereum is mirroring Bitcoin’s tumble in February 2026, slumping to around $1,940, its lowest since late 2025. The 42% year-to-date drop exacerbates a 32% Q4 2025 decline, fueled by the nomination of hawkish Kevin Warsh as Fed chair, stoking fears of paused rate cuts and balance sheet runoff that punish risk assets like ETH. This follows broader investor rotation from crypto amid conservative monetary signals.
Onchain data show that 58% of addresses are in unrealized losses, transaction fees hit lows of $0.001 while staking queues reach 4.1M ETH, roughly 30% supply locked, signaling reduced activity but potential accumulation. Over the past week, ETH bottomed at $1,748 on Feb. 6 before stabilizing near $2,090 midweek, then slipping below $2,000 by Feb. 11. Oscillators like RSI and Stochastic hover oversold, hinting at exhaustion, while ADX confirms a strong downtrend.
Trade analysis
Prices could swing on macro news and technical breaks, with edges in parsing Fed impacts versus onchain resilience.
Bullish (>1900) signals:
- Dovish Fed rhetoric or Warsh easing on policy tightening
- Regulatory advancements like clearer ETH ETF rules, lifting sentiment
- Accumulation inflows continuing, with price holding above $1,540 support
Bearish (<1900) signals:
- Confirmed hawkish Fed pauses on cuts
- Liquidations from leveraged positions as funding rates stay negative
- Equities risk-off amid slowdown, dragging altcoins
Currently, Fed shifts and stalled regs limit upside, with markets eyeing sub-1,800 odds on momentum. The edge would be to fade bounces in 1,900-2,000, buy 1,700-1,800 post-dumps and watch onchain metrics. Our base case is languishing in 1,700-1,900 unless policy tailwinds.