The 98th Academy Awards nominees gathered at the Beverly Hilton for the traditional Oscars luncheon on February 11, 2026, marking a convivial interlude before the March 15 ceremony.
Ryan Coogler’s Sinners,” a vampire epic, topped the field with a record 16 nominations including Best Picture, Director and Original Screenplay, drawing the loudest applause. Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” followed with 13 nods, also vying for top honors alongside “Bugonia,” “F1,” “Frankenstein,” “Hamnet,” “Marty Supreme,” “The Secret Agent,” “Sentimental Value” and “Train Dreams.”
Notable absences included Ludwig Göransson and Renate Reinsve due to filming commitments. The event highlighted industry shifts, with new Academy President Lynette Howell Taylor emphasizing casting directors’ recognition and power players like Disney’s Josh D’Amaro in attendance.
Trade analysis
In this high-liquidity prediction market prices can fluctuate with nomination hype, precursor awards or sentiment spikes. The key edge is separating nomination volume from proven indicators like guild wins and critical consensus.
Bullish (YES) signals for “One Battle After Another”:
- Sweeps major precursors (PGA, DGA, SAG Ensemble)
- Sustained critical acclaim and box office momentum
- Academy’s historical favoritism toward auteur-driven dramas
Bullish (YES) signals for “Sinners”:
- Wins genre-defying categories in precursors
- Broad voter enthusiasm as seen in luncheon applause
- Cultural resonance boosting underrepresented narratives
At present, markets have rebounded toward “One Battle After Another” after initial post-nomination dips, reflecting overreactions to “Sinners'” nom count.
A disciplined strategy is to fade hype-driven rallies, buying NO on overhyped underdogs during buzz peaks while holding YES on frontrunners post-precursors. Size positions conservatively as voter surprises remain possible and reassess after BAFTAs. Our base case is “One Battle After Another” prevails through 2026.