Gold is gaining momentum early Thursday after hitting one-week highs above $4,700. Markets are optimistic about a potential US-Iran peace deal, as the US is reportedly close to a 14-point memorandum of understanding covering suspension of Iranian nuclear enrichment, sanctions relief and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is said to be reviewing the proposal, raising hopes for de-escalation that could reduce inflation pressures.
This narrative is weakening the US dollar which has erased war-related gains, while lighter inflation fears boost expectations for Fed rate cuts. Upcoming Friday’s nonfarm payrolls with +60k new jobs expected, will be key in assessing labor market resilience and the Fed’s easing path.
Trade analysis
Short-dated market on June gold close features active brackets at 4600, 5500, and 5800. Volatility will be driven by peace deal headlines, NFP data, as well as technical breaks. The edge lies in separating headline-driven optimism from actual policy outcomes.
Bullish (5000 or higher) signals:
- Progress or signing of US-Iran peace deal normalizing energy prices
- Soft NFP data strengthening Fed rate-cut expectations
- Sustained break above $5,050 confirming bullish reversal
Bearish (4400 or lower) signals:
- Stalled or failed peace talks reigniting geopolitical and inflation risks
- Strong NFP reinforcing Fed pause and dollar strength
- Sustained break below $4,340 confirming extended correction
The precious metal remains in a corrective phase. The current strategy is to fade rallies into 5000 on spikes and buy dips toward 4400, and monitor deal updates and NFP closely. Our base case is 4400-5100 range into June with gradual upside bias if peace talks advance and data softens.