The Strait of Hormuz stayed closed Sunday amid a US-Iran standoff. Iran briefly declared the waterway open Friday following a Lebanon ceasefire, sparking market relief and falling oil prices. However, it quickly reversed course after Trump insisted the US would maintain its blockade of Iranian ports until a comprehensive deal.
Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated progress exists but “many gaps” remain and a final agreement is “far” off. The IRGC warned that ships attempting transit without permission would be targeted.
Trade analysis
Tracking data confirmed the strait empty by Sunday morning, with vessels retreating after initial attempts on Saturday. The hardliner pushback signals prolonged disruption with the two-week ceasefire about to expire on Wednesday, adding near-term risk.
Bullish (YES) signals
- Quick US concession on the blockade
- Visible tanker traffic resuming
Bearish (NO) signals
- Continued IRGC enforcement
- Escalation if the ceasefire lapses
In this case markets may overprice short-term panic. Our edge is to buy NO on hype-driven spikes as diplomatic off-ramps and economic pressure on both sides suggest eventual normalization, though likely after April. Base case leans NO for full normal traffic this month.