Gold’s advance stalled in early March 2026, reversing sharply after a geopolitical spike from Iran’s war outbreak. Despite partial recovery, failure to close above 5421 resistance leaves the rally vulnerable. Prices dipped over 5% from highs before stabilizing around 5200, as momentum eases from overbought RSI near 70, testing the February uptrend’s viability.
Technicals show consolidation beneath the median-line, with support at 4866 and 4660. Deeper support at 4500. Broader uptrend remains intact, but a larger pullback looms if momentum breaks.
Weak NFP (-92K) shifted Fed cut odds to 60% for July, balancing inflation vs. labor weakness. This could bolster gold via softer rates, though dollar strength may set a cap.
Trade analysis
Short-dated market on June gold close features active brackets from 4200 to 6500. Volatility hinges on geopolitics and technicals.
Bullish (6000 or higher) signals:
- Fed cut acceleration after inflation data
- Iran tensions escalating safe-haven demand
- Break above 5430 fueling momentum
Bearish (5500 or lower) signals:
- Hot inflation delaying cuts amid US dollar rally
- RSI break signaling deeper correction
- Risk-off from labor slowdown
Stiff resistance caps upside, with sub-5500 risks if data disappoints. The strategy is to fade rallies (sell 5500-5800 on spikes) and buy dips (4600-5000 post-pulls). Our base case is 5000-5500 consolidation unless cuts materialize.