Prediction markets have grown from academic experiments to multi-billion dollar platforms since 2025, allowing people to have a stake in virtually anything. With trading volume soaring from under $100 million a month in 2024 to over $13 billion by the end of 2025, these markets are becoming a new asset class according to U.S. bank Citizens.
For the sake of prediction, what if this industry grows as big as crypto markets? This guide gives an in-depth look at five popular platforms: Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, Manifold Markets, and Opinion.trade.
For each one we’ll explore features such as:
- Regulatory standing
- Regional availability
- Fee structure
- Resolution process
- Strengths and limitations
For definition of prediction markets, see our guide here.
1. Polymarket
Polymarket is a crypto‑native prediction exchange where users trade USDC‑denominated contracts on politics, macro, crypto prices, sports and culture, with the main venue on Polygon plus a separate US‑regulated entity.
In 2025, the platform saw over $18.4 billion in trading volume, exceeding $1 billion a week during major events. It’s a dominant player now competing with Kalshi in US regulated space.
Regulation and availability
After a regulatory shutdown in 2022, it received CFTC approval in late 2025 to re-enter the US market under a regulated framework, operating as an intermediated Designated Contract Market (DCM) through acquired QCEX license.
The international platform runs separately as an on‑chain dApp without a full securities license. Polymarket is effectively a compliant US exchange with an offshore crypto venue.
No KYC is required to open an account and trade.
Access is currently expanding, though with restrictions in 30+ countries:
- US: Limited rollout from December 2025 on separate app polymarketexchange.com
- International: Access to the global platform polymarket.com
Markets and fees
Polymarket offers a wide range of markets including:
- US and international politics, geopolitics and events
- Sports: NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, soccer, UFC
- Cryptocurrency prices
- Economics and financial markets
- Pop culture, entertainment, awards shows
- Technology and AI developments
Trading costs are toward the lower end as the platform is trying to establish itself:
- Global platform: Currently no trading fees (0%)
- US platform: Flat 0.01% fee (1 cent per $100 traded), making it 100x lower than Kalshi’s average fees
All settlements and deposits/withdrawals are in USDC stablecoin (global) or USD (US).
Resolution process
Each market has written rules and reference sources. The operator posts resolutions, after which smart contracts distribute USDC automatically.
Short‑term price markets reference on‑chain or exchange price feeds, while macro and politics use official data and reputable media.
Polymarket relies on UMA protocol’s Optimistic Oracle for decentralized resolution. The process runs as follows:
- Proposer submits outcome with bonded collateral ($750)
- 2-hour challenge window for disputes
- If disputed, second proposal round required
- Second dispute escalates to UMA Data Verification Mechanism (DVM)
- UMA token holders vote on correct outcome with a 48-hour window
- Winning proposers receive rewards, and incorrect proposers lose bonds
This mechanism ensures that no single entity controls resolution outcomes and economic incentives align proposers and disputers with sources of truth.
Strengths and limitations
Polymarket’s main strengths include:
- Largest prediction market globally by volume and liquidity
- Extremely low fees and no withdrawal fees on international platform
- Wide variety of markets across diverse topics
- High liquidity in major markets
- User-friendly interface and mobile app
- Crypto-native with USDC settlements
- Strong institutional backing
- Integration with major platforms (X/Twitter, Google, NHL, UFC)
- Most markets (~98.5%) resolve without dispute
Current limitations include:
- Limited US access via invite-only beta as of January 2026
- US version launched with sports markets only, with other categories pending regulatory approval
- 5% withdrawal fees on US platform for winnings
- Some cryptocurrency knowledge needed for international version
- Legal and regulatory uncertainty
- VPN use prohibited with risks of account freeze
- Resolution controversy with potential whale manipulation and conflicts of interest among UMA voters
2. Kalshi
Kalshi is the first CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange in the US. Launched in early 2022, it has become the largest regulated prediction market platform by trading volume in the US
Kalshi handled more than 50B in trading volume in 2025, with some months above 4–5B and December 2025 alone around 6.4B.
The platform has about 66% of the regulated prediction market share by September 2025.
Regulation and availability
As a DCM, event contracts are regulated futures contracts rather than gambling bets. The firm is subject to reporting, surveillance, recordkeeping, and customer protection requirements similar to traditional derivatives markets.
To open an account, KYC is required with full identity verification.
Access is currently limited to users in the US, with standard AML checks and fiat deposits.
- US: 40+ states except in four states including Maryland, which has challenged its operations
- International: Expansion plans yet to be implemented
Markets and fees
A big chunk of trading volume comes from sports especially during NFL seasons. Tradable markets include:
- Sports: NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, college sports
- Politics: Elections, policy decisions, congressional outcomes
- Economics: Federal Reserve decisions, inflation data, unemployment figures
- Others: Weather, technology, entertainment, and pop culture
Trading costs range from $0.07 to $1.75 per 100 contracts and are based on odds and order types:
- 1.75% for maker orders (limit orders) and 0.7% for taker orders (market orders)
- Capped at specific maximums per contract
There are no deposit fees for ACH transfers and 2% fee for debit card deposits, and $2 fee for debit card withdrawals. See the official website for details.
Resolution process
Clear resolution criteria are published for each market and defined around official data sources (e.g. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve), major news organizations (AP, Reuters, Bloomberg), sports leagues.
Most markets resolve within 24-48 hours of event conclusion and are settled centrally by Kalshi according to detailed rulebooks.
As a DCM, Kalshi is subject to CFTC oversight and reporting, which may offer regulatory recourse and disputes would go through compliance processes.
Strengths and limitations
Kalshi’s main strengths include:
- Full regulatory clarity for US users
- Deep liquidity in major markets, especially sports and politics
- Transparent fee structure and pricing
- Professional-grade trading interface with advanced order types
- 4% annual interest on cash balances, including funds in open positions
- Crypto deposits (USDC, BTC, SOL, Worldcoin) via ZeroHash, converted to USD
- Predictive Insights feature showing historical price data
- Strong institutional backing
Current limitations include:
- US‑only access
- Less market variety and CFTC-approved events only
- Higher fees, especially at extreme probabilities, compared to crypto-native competitors
- Relatively limited customer support and responsible gambling features
- 30-day hold period on certain deposits before withdrawal
3. PredictIt
PredictIt is a US-based exchange run by the Prediction Market Research Consortium with Victoria University of Wellington. After years of regulatory uncertainty, it received full CFTC approval in 2025 and became a DCM and Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO) as of September 2025.
The platform is smaller than Polymarket and Kalshi but with a strong focus on US political events. It is transitioning from a research-only to full scale commercial model and the recent approval would offer an opportunity to expand beyond politics.
Regulation and availability
Originally ran as a research‑focused market under a CFTC no‑action letter with strict limits on stake size and contract counts. In 2025, PredictIt secured CFTC approval for its operator Aristotle to run a licensed exchange and clearinghouse.
Access is currently limited to US users only. However, historically it was accessible but with the sector expanding and new rules rolling out, we can expect broader access in the near future.
KYC is required with identity verification and a 30-day hold on deposits.
Markets and fees
Markets include:
- Elections (presidential, congressional, gubernatorial, primaries)
- Political events and appointments
- Policy decisions and legislative outcomes
- International politics
New limits from 2025 cap positions to $3,500 per contract compared to $850 before, while the 5,000-trader cap has been lifted, allowing unlimited participants in any market.
The traditional fee model charges around 10% on profits when closing positions plus about 5% on withdrawals, making it rather expensive.
Resolution process
PredictIt has an internal resolution team applying pre‑published rules and clear resolution criteria published for each market, referencing official government or credible media sources for results.
Markets are resolved by the staff based on those criteria and usually resolve within days of conclusion. There is limited recourse for appeals, though the CFTC oversight may offer regulatory backstop.
Strengths and limitations
PredictIt’s main strengths include:
- Full regulatory approval and legal certainty
- Specialized expertise in political markets
- Long track record with operations dating back to 2014
- Over 160 academic partnerships and data sharing program
- Established user community focused on political forecasting
- Simple interface for political events
Current limitations include:
- High fee structure making profitability challenging
- Payment methods limited to ACH, credit card, PayNearMe, and check
- Narrow market focus primarily on politics
- 30-day deposit hold period
- Lower liquidity compared to larger platforms
- Limited promotional offers or bonuses
4. Manifold Markets
Manifold Markets is a play-money prediction market platform that allows any user to create markets on any topic. It uses “Mana” (M$) as its currency, which can be purchased or earned but primarily works as play money.
Regulation and availability
Because trading is in internal play‑money points, Manifold operates outside securities and gambling regulation, positioning itself as a forecasting game rather than a traditional financial venue.
It is globally accessible via web signup without KYC, with some restrictions around prize eligibility by jurisdiction.
Recently introduced “Sweepstakes” in some U.S. states offer real-money payouts but require user KYC.
Markets and fees
Manifold hosts thousands of user‑generated markets with volumes in mana rather than in dollar:
- Science and technology
- Personal goals
- Politics
- Entertainment
- Crypto
- Niche and community-specific markets
Trading costs depend on the market type:
- Play money: 10% trading fee calculated as: 10% × volume × (1 – max price per share). This means that high-payout trades cost more.
- Sweepstakes: 5% withdrawal fee on winnings
- Market creation: M$50 cost per market which will be used in the liquidity pool
- Daily bonuses from M$5 to M$25 for consistent trading
Market creators used to be able to earn fees from trading. Now the platform offers incentives through its Creator Partner Program.
Manifold’s play money economy has some unique features:
- Starting balance: M$500 free
- Current conversion rate is M$100 = $1
- Quests and achievements provide additional mana
Resolution process
Market creators specify resolution criteria and resolve their own markets, dispute and correction mechanisms are supported by community reporting and admin intervention. Disputes may resolve to N/A and refunds will be issued to traders minus platform fees.
This process is faster and more flexible than regulated venues but depends mostly on creator integrity and community norms. As such the risk of unfair resolutions cannot be ignored, though the system is based on trust and creators are incentivized to build and maintain reputation.
Strengths and limitations
Manifold’s main strengths include:
- Freedom to create markets on any topic
- Long-tail topics not available on regulated platforms
- Play money means no financial risk to participate
- Daily liquidity and bonuses keep users engaged
Current limitations include:
- Play money limits real stakes and prediction accuracy
- Creator-resolved markets can lack neutrality
- Less reliable price discovery compared to real-money markets
- Sweepstakes mode has limited availability and withdrawal restrictions
- Mana value depreciation due to unlimited supply
5. Opinion.trade
Opinion.trade (also known as OPINION or O.LAB) is a crypto-native prediction market launched in late 2024 on BNB Chain. It positions itself as a “People’s Terminal for Global Economic Trading,” focusing on macro-economic events and financial markets with AI-powered oracle resolution.
Since its October 2024 launch the decentralized platform has seen explosive growth with weekly volume reaching $2 billion in January 2026, making it one of the top dogs.
Regulation and availability
The platform is globally accessible, though users may want to check their local laws to make sure that event betting is effectively allowed.
Users can easily connect their Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) wallets to start trading and as an unregulated platform there is no KYC needed.
Markets and fees
Opinion has a strong focus on macro-economics and cryptos and also covers:
- Politics
- Sports
- Business and financial markets
- Community events: User-generated markets on various topics
Trading fees are structured around order types and odds:
- Maker fees: Zero for limit orders
- Taker fees: 0% to 2% for market orders
Taker fees are based on probability: topic rate × price × (1 – price) × discounts
This means that they are highest at 50% probability or maximum uncertainty. There’s also a minimum of $0.5 per trade.
Discounts can be available per user, transaction, or referral.
The platform covers gas fees for trading but has some minimum thresholds to be aware of: $5 for order and withdrawal.
Resolution process
Opinion is the first platform to use multi-model AI jury for resolution. Their Opinion AI is a decentralized multi-agent AI based on OpenAI, Claude, and Gemini, and the hybrid approach involves AI proposing resolutions with human reviewers checking outcomes.
Opinion AI is also used in market creation to convert user prompts into prediction contracts with clear rules and ensure that events can be resolved objectively before publishing.
Strengths and limitations
Opinion’s main strengths include:
- Zero maker fees to incentivize liquidity provision
- AI-powered market creation and resolution reduces disputes
- Permissionless creation allows any user to propose markets
- Fast resolution after event conclusion
- Weekly point rewards program with minimum $200 volume threshold
- Expected future token airdrop for point holders
Current limitations include:
- Unregulated status creates legal uncertainty
- Requires cryptocurrency knowledge and wallet setup
- Lower liquidity than established platforms in most markets
- Human reviewer verification process not fully transparent
Comparative analysis
To make your life easier, here are side-by-side comparisons of trading costs and user experience.
Best for low fees
| Platform | Maker fees | Taker fees | Withdrawal fees |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 0-0.01% | 0-0.01% | 0% |
| Opinion | 0% | 0-2% | 0% |
| Kalshi | 0.9% | 1.5% | $2 (debit card) |
| Manifold | 0% | 10% | 0% |
| PredictIt | 10% | 10% | 5% |
Best for user experience
| Platform | Interface | Setup difficulty | Learning curve |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manifold | Playful | Easy | Low |
| Kalshi | Professional | Easy | Medium |
| PredictIt | Basic | Easy | Low |
| Polymarket | Modern | Medium | Medium |
| Opinion | Advanced | Medium | High |
Final thought
Prediction markets have seen explosive growth since 2025 amid regulatory evolution and technological innovation. More platforms will likely emerge to cater for soaring demand, but as for now the split is obvious between on-chain and off-chain providers.
Decentralized platforms like Polymarket and Opinion.trade are great for crypto-savvy traders. They lead with overall volume and low fees but may face more regulatory challenges. Regulated platforms like Kalshi and PredictIt dominate the U.S. market with specialization in sports and political events, offering legal certainty at the cost of higher fees and event constraints. At last, Manifold provides a low-stakes experimental platform ideal for learning and niche topics.
New to trading? We’ve got you covered with our guide on how to trade prediction markets.