US forces conducted their 11th consecutive night of strikes targeting Iranian operations centers, maritime assets and logistics to degrade threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping. Explosions hit Tehran, Tabriz, Chabahar, Konarak and Bushehr where a nuclear power plant is located.
Iran has activated defenses and retaliated with drones and missiles on US allies. De facto, a fragile April ceasefire and June MoU have collapsed after renewed Iranian attacks on over 30 vessels.
Trade Analysis
Escalation has intensified with explicit US threats to bomb the underground Pickaxe Mountain complex which is an undeclared enrichment site. Trump openly announced targets, while Iran warned this would expand the war regionally, threatening all US and allied interests.
Bullish (YES) signals:
- Direct threats to core nuclear infrastructure signal willingness for deeper strikes.
- Collapsed ceasefires and mutual accusations erode de-escalation.
- Regional spillover raises stakes for further action.
Bearish (NO) signals:
- Strikes remain focused on degrading capabilities rather than regime change.
- High financial toll and domestic pressures may favor containment.
- International shipping is still transiting Hormuz per Centcom.
The latest developments push YES probabilities higher with the escalatory cycle and nuclear rhetoric, increasing odds of major confrontation within the 2027 window. However, absence of ground operations or full regime-change language keeps full invasion uncertain. Traders should monitor Natanz-related strikes or Houthi escalation as binary triggers. Our base case is NO in spite of volatility.