An attack on the container ship Ever Lovely on Thursday, the first since the interim US-Iran peace deal, has prompted some shipowners to review or pause exit plans from the Persian Gulf. However, traffic continued in both directions on Friday. Ship-tracking data shows two fully laden tankers outbound, four empty VLCCs inbound along the Omani-managed southern route coordinated by the US, plus additional vessels including LNG carriers and products tankers.
Though conflicting signals on administration and fees persist, average daily tanker crossings have risen to more than 20 since the deal, up from six during the war. US officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, continue pressing for a permanently toll-free strait, leaning on Oman to reject joint tolling with Iran.
Trade analysis
The attack introduces short-term risk and caution, but rising traffic volumes and continued transits show the reopening momentum has sustained.
Bullish (YES) signals:
- Sustained rise in daily crossings toward pre-conflict levels
- US-Oman pressure preventing toll implementation
Bearish (NO) signals:
- More attacks or shipowner pullbacks derailing the recovery
- Iran and Oman enforcing fees or control
The prospects for the June contract remain marginally positive but face headwinds from security incidents. The trading edge is to buy NO on over-optimism around the attack or hold minor YES for a tail-risk scenario if traffic data continues improving steadily.