SpaceX (SPCX) instantly became a retail capital magnet after its record IPO but is now delivering early buyers their first major gut check. The stock is down over 2% in pre-market trading on Tuesday, extending losses to a third straight day and erasing more than 30% from its June 16 peak of $225.64, but still 15% above the $135 listing price.
The pullback follows the explosive post-IPO surge that briefly pushed SpaceX past Amazon and near Microsoft in market value. It comes as investors eye a future supply increase, with insider locked-up shares potentially hitting the market after the company’s earnings report in early to mid-August.
Trade analysis
Prices may swing sharply on momentum hype and now profit-taking. The edge lies in separating short-term retail enthusiasm and passive inflows from sustainable valuation drivers like float dynamics and profitability.
Bullish ($3T) signals:
- Fast-track Nasdaq 100 inclusion plus FTSE Russell and MSCI additions driving ETF demand
- Strong investor enthusiasm for Elon Musk’s integrated rockets-to-AI empire
Bearish (<$1.5T) signals:
- Sharp multi-day sell-off with meme-stock-like volatility and heavy profit-taking
- Upcoming lock-up expirations after August earnings increasing supply risk
Markets have come under pressure from the three-day slide, testing whether initial retail buyers will hold through volatility. A strategy is to fade extreme spikes on options and inclusion news while monitoring retail flow stickiness on this first hard sell-off. Buy NO on overextended targets during euphoria, and reassess YES positions after lock-up and earnings. Our base case is that SpaceX maintains a strong multi-trillion-dollar valuation through June 30, 2026.