An interim peace deal is set to take effect Friday, reopening the Strait of Hormuz on a toll-free basis for an initial 60-day window tied to nuclear negotiations. Trump emphasized a “permanently toll-free” strait, while Iranian state media reported a last-minute clause allowing joint Iranian-Omani administration of maritime services and potential fees after 60 days. Both sides confirm no immediate tolls despite conflicting messages.
Mine clearance by U.S. allies is expected to facilitate recovery, with officials predicting traffic could normalize “within 30 days.” However, analysts remain cautious. While trapped tankers may exit fast, new inbound traffic could lag. Oxford Economics remains skeptical and Sen. Lindsey Graham voiced concerns over mismatched U.S. and Iranian understandings of the accord.
Trade analysis
This deal is a significant positive step for the June contract, providing a clear framework and timeline for reopening. Diplomatic progress and mine-clearance plans support faster normalization, though toll disputes and implementation risks create uncertainty.
Bullish (YES) signals:
- Rapid mine clearance and first major commercial transits within weeks
- Strong U.S. pressure and Omani cooperation enabling pre-conflict traffic levels
Bearish (NO) signals:
- Delays from mines or stalled technical nuclear talks
- Renewed clashes or Israeli disruption
The prospects for the June contract have improved. With the deal effective Friday and explicit timelines, YES odds may rise on confirmation of initial transits and mine removal. The edge favors YES on any post-announcement dips, as short-term momentum points to substantial recovery by late June. Though our base case remains NO for full normalization due to said technical challenges.